Working the Price Book Data.....Part 1

It's time to make some sense of all this data.
Here are the 6 weeks of grocery store prices....


Ground Beef...2.28/3.69  3.79/3.99   2.79/2.99   2.49/3.89  3.49/2.99  2.79/3.99
Chuck Roast....3.99/3.99  2.99/3.99     3.79/3.79   3.99/5.29  2.99/3.99  3.99/3.99
Hot Dogs....4.99/5.99  4.99/5.99    4.99/3.00   5.39/3.50  3.99/5.99  5.39/5.99
Pork....3.99/3.00  3.99/2.99   3.49/2.99   2.99/3.69  1.99/2.49  3.49/3.69
Bacon....2.98/3.50  3.99/3.50   3.99/3.00   2.98/4.00  3.50/3.49  3.99/3.50
Chicken Breast....2.99/3.09  2.99/3.49    2.99/3.99   1.89/3.29  2.99/3.19  .99/3.29
Chicken Whole.... .78/1.69  1.39/1.89    1.59/1.49   1.59/1.79  1.29/1.69  1.59/1.69
Salmon....10.00/7.99  0.00/7.99   9.99/7.99   6.99/7.99  6.99/7.99  11.16/7.99
Cheese....1.77/2.99  2.00/2.00    1.75/2.00   1.66/2.00  1.50/3.00  2.00/2.50
Butter.....3.00/3.50  3.49/3.98    2.50/2.50   3.00/3.00  3.49/3.50  3.00/3.50
Eggs....1.93/1.50  1.79/1.89     1.83/1.53   1.25/1.99  2.09/1.99  2.09/1.99
Carrots.... .90/1.00  .75/1.29    .90/1.69   .90/1.00  .75/.78  .99/1.00
Potatoes....1.48/2.50  2.99/2.99  1.50/2.00   .94/2.50  2.00/3.99  2.99/2.50
Celery.....1.69/2.59  1.99/1.89    2.99/1.50   1.49/1.50  1.99/2.50  1.99/2.59
Onion..... .49/.75  1.69/1.00  .59/1.69   1.69/.75  1.25/1.99  1.29/1.50
Salad Greens....2.50/1.95  2.50/1.85   2.50/1.85   1.99/1.85  2.50/1.85  2.50/2.50
Pasta..... .88/1.00  1.00/1.00   1.00/1.00   1.25/1.25  1.00/1.00  1.00/1.00
Spaghetti Sauce.... .88/1.00  1.33/1.25    1.50/2.00   1.66/1.50  1.00/1.25  1.00/1.25
Coffee....5.65 lb/5.12 lb  5.65 lb/4.16 lb   (4.00)5.65/4.85*   4.32/4.80  5.65/4.80  3.87/4.35
Soup Tomato...1.05/.75  1.05/1.00   .50/.69   .79/.69  1.05/.75  .79/1.00
Soup Cream....1.00/.75  1.29/1.39    .99/.75   .99/.75  .80/.99  .99/1.00
Flour.....2.19/2.19  2.19/2.19   2.00/2.19   2.19/2.19  2.19/2.19  2.19/2.19
Sugar.....2.69/2.69   2.69/2.69   2.50/2.69   2.69/2.69  2.50/2.69  2.89/2.50
Brown Sugar...1.89/1.69  1.89/1.69    1.89/1.69   1.89/1.69  1.89/1.69  1.89/1.69
Honey.....4.00 lb/3.45 lb  4.00 lb/3.45 lb    4.00 lb/3.32 lb   4.00 lb/4.00 lb  4.29 lb/3.32 lb  4.00 lb/3.43 lb
Deli Ham...5.99/7.99  4.99/5.99   4.99/7.99   3.99/5.99  4.99/7.99  4.99/4.99
Deli Provolone...7.99/8.99  4.99/8.99   5.99/8.99   5.99/7.99  5.99/5.99  5.99/7.99
Frozen Pizza...4.49/4.99  5.00/3.33   5.00/3.33   4.00/5.00  5.00/5.00  4.49/3.33
Ice Cream...3.00/3.00  2.50/3.00   3.50/3.00   2.50/3.33  3.75/3.00  2.50/3.00
Frozen Broccoli...1.88/1.50  2.19/2.00    2.09/1.25   2.15/1.59  1.33/1.25  1.33/1.50
Soda....4.99/4.00  4.00/4.00   3.66/3.25   4.00/3.00  4.99/3.67  3.50/4.00
Chips....3.00/3.00  3.00/2.50   2.15/2.15   1.88/2.15  3.50/2.00  2.15/2.15

That's a whole lot of numbers, isn't it?
Let's start breaking this down into manageable bits.

You'll notice that with some items, the prices changed every week or so, and with other items, they stayed the same for most of the last 6 weeks.

Let's look at those items that didn't vary much in price first.

These would be the FLOUR, both REGULAR CANE SUGAR and BROWN SUGAR.

Flour.....2.19/2.19  2.19/2.19   2.00/2.19   2.19/2.19  2.19/2.19  2.19/2.19
Sugar.....2.69/2.69   2.69/2.69   2.50/2.69   2.69/2.69  2.50/2.69  2.89/2.50
Brown Sugar...1.89/1.69  1.89/1.69    1.89/1.69   1.89/1.69  1.89/1.69  1.89/1.69


The flour went on sale at only Store #1, during Week 3.  It didn't go on sale at Store #2 during this cycle.

The cane sugar went on sale 2 weeks(Week 3 & 5)but only at Store #1.  The cane sugar went on sale at Store #2 during Week 6.

The brown sugar stayed the same price at both store for all 6 Weeks.  But you will notice that it is always .20¢ cheaper at Store #2.

So what conclusions can we draw from this information?
1-These items rarely go on sale so they are items you want to buy ahead when you do find them on sale, but only according to your needs.  If you only use 1 bag of flour every 3 months, don't go wild and buy 10 bags.  Baking goods tend to go on sale around the "big" Holidays--Christmas, Thanksgiving and Easter.  Easter is coming up so think about buying enough flour/sugar/yeast/baking soda and powders to get you to Thanksgiving, IF you have the storage space and IF you find it for a low price.
2- The flour has very low price volatility so you need not worry about finding the rock bottom price in the cycle as much.  If you use flour often(do a lot of baking, bread making), it might be wiser to figure how much you use and check out a resource where you might get it cheaper in bulk--like a warehouse store, a bulk food store or a restaurant supply store.  If you just use flour in regular "home" cooking(for sauces and the stray thickening agent), it might be just as good to buy it at the grocery store, catch the buy price and do a little stocking up on it.
3-On the cane sugar, if the data were to continue as it has, you would see a price drop at Store #1 during a week or two and then a price drop at Store #2 in the following week or so.  During a 6 week cycle,this means you would have more than 1 chance to pick this item up at lowest price.
4-The brown sugar also has very low price volatility and is always priced lower at Store #2, therefore I should always buy this item at Store #2 for a lower price.   Since I  know this price is lower at Store #2, I can now go to other grocery outlets and price out their brown sugar.  I would try Aldi and Sav-A-Lot(which have lower price points)and the Restaurant Outlet(I'd have to buy larger bags but it would be lower priced per lb.), If I find it cheaper than $1.69 2lb. bag, you know that's your buy price.
5-Now look again at the cane sugar price in Week 6.  Do you see that Store #1 has INCREASED it's price on the item?  The reg. price was $2.69 and now it's $2.89.  I will be interested to see if Store #2 increases it's reg. price this week, as stores in my tiny town tend to mirror each others prices.


In conclusion, I know my buy price on flour is $2.00 or less, on cane sugar is $2.50(or less if I can get a name brand with a coupon for lower), and on brown sugar $1.69(or less)but ONLY at Store #2(unless I see it for less at Store #1).

Now let's look at Cheese--
Cheese....1.77/2.99  2.00/2.00    1.75/2.00   1.66/2.00  1.50/3.00  2.00/2.50
The lowest price was $1.50(Store #1), the highest price was $3.00(Store #2).  That's a $1.49 difference for 8 oz. of cheese!  You will notice that Store #1 always had the lowest(or the same)price as Store #2.
The lowest price in the cycle was during our Week #5, so I should look to pick up 6 week's worth of cheese in about 4 weeks from now and/or when it goes down to $1.50 a bag again.  And unless Store #2 has a big loss leader with cheese in the next 4 weeks, I'll find the cheese buy price at Store #1.

Now let's look at Deli Ham-- 
Deli Ham...5.99/7.99  4.99/5.99   4.99/7.99   3.99/5.99  4.99/7.99  4.99/4.99
The first thing I noticed was Store #2......the reg. price was $7.99 and they brought the price down every other week $2-$3.
At Store #1, if the pattern holds, the price of Deli Ham this week should be $5.99.  I had Daughter check and it IS $5.99 this week. lol  But there is a different Deli Ham there this week that is $4.99. ;-)
At any rate, the Deli Ham is always less at Store #1, so I'll look to buy it there and at the $3.99 price, which I anticipate should be back in 2-3 weeks.

Now let's look at Ground Beef--
Ground Beef...2.28/3.69  3.79/3.99   2.79/2.99   2.49/3.89  3.49/2.99  2.79/3.99 
Meats are generally the most volatile prices in the grocery store.  They use meat as a loss leader to get you into the store and hope you buy lots of other things at not so great prices.

You will notice that every week, except for 1(Week 5), Store #1 was less expensive than Store #2.  There was a $1.71 spread in price on this item from the highest to the lowest price!

If you had bought 1 lb. of ground beef each week at these 2 Stores, you would have spent $17.63 at Store #1 and $21.54 at Store #2.  That's a difference of $3.91 just buying it every week at 1 store rather than the other.  Not even buying ahead, you would have saved money buying on demand at Store #1.

Now if you have bought 6 week's worth of ground beef(6lbs.)ahead at the lowest price in the cycle(Week #1 at Store #1), and freezing 5lbs. of it for the coming weeks, you would have spent $13.68....that's an additional savings of $3.95 over $17.63.

So take your pick.....
Spend $21.54, $17.63 or $13.68 and get the same exact items in the same exact amounts.

You saved money buying at the less expensive price weekly and you saved the most buying at the lowest price ahead.
Savings $3.95 may not seem like much, but that's just 1 item on your shopping list.  Mulitply saving $1 here or $.20¢ there for every item on your shopping list and it adds up quickly!

More later.....

Sluggy

Did You Do Your Price Book This Week? & Newbie Grocery Store Tips

Just a reminder to get those Price Book Week 2 prices recorded before the Sales week at your store(s) is over.

I did 1 store so far this week but I still need to get the prices at Weis "PMITA" Markets recorded.

**A quick note in regard to sales cycles at the store for newbies**

As you go through these weeks jotting down prices you may notice that at your store there is 1 week per month where your store is advertising "house brands" mostly and not the name brand products.  House brands are the store brand equivalents of all those name brand products they carry.  Your store may have 1 house brand or they may have lots of house brand names they use.  For example,  my local Shursave affiliate market carries Shursave or Shurfine branded products.  These are the brands that are always lower than the identical products that they carry under a name brand.
But if I shop at Weis or Price Chopper, both of these chains feature more than 1 name for their house brand.  And then there are stores like Aldi's that only carry their house brands and Sav-A-Lot which carries their house brands and a very limited selection of name brands.

Some people can taste a difference between name branded and store branded items.  I have found the quality of house brands vs. name brands range from identical to "are you kidding me?!".  8-)
You really need to try a house brands before you dismiss it as not worth buying because it tastes bad.
House brands of basic items like canned tomato products, flour, sugar, etc. are usually on par in quality with the name brand ones.  Once you are into the higher priced items.....like coffee, frozen veggies, the ingredients in the house brand may be far below that of the name brand equivalent.  Sometimes it IS all about "you get what you pay for".

In order to get the lowest priced of identical items, and without shopping the weekly sales and/or using coupons, you are probably buying the house brand(s).  House brands don't go on sale very often usually, compared to name brands.  A store will push their house brands in their sales ad 1 week of each month.  Around here, that week is usually the 3rd week of the month.  The "house brand week" generally will fall in your area when the majority of employees who are paid monthly or twice a month are at the end of a pay period.  The assumption is that everyone runs out of money the closer to payday, so they push the less expensive brands, the house brands.  "HBW" might be the last week of the month instead, as the govt. sends out support checks at the beginning of the month.

Usually, again in my area, advertising of house brands does not mean the house brand items in the ad are on sale.
If you are trying to figure out when to buy/what to buy to get the best deal, take note of when your store pushes the house brands, and when they feature the house brands in their ads, if they are actually a better deal that week compared to the rest of the month.
A favorite "trick" of grocery stores is to feature an item in a sales ad at the regular price if they need to unload extra stock of that item.  You see the item in the ad and assume it is on sale, yet it is not.  The store will try this trick to sell items it is overloaded with first, before it reduces the price.  So when perusing your sales ads, it helps to know the regular prices of items.

I'll be back tomorrow night with my Price Book Week 2 prices.

Sluggy

Today We Start Saving Money At the Grocery Store! How To PRICE BOOK

Ok, if you are an old frugal hand when it comes to the Grocery Store, this isn't for you.
But......if you regularly feel you spend too much on groceries, it's time to take control of your money!

Want to know my secret to saving money on groceries?
No, it's not coupons, though they DO help.

I keep a PRICE BOOK.
And you should too!
It's an awesome TOOL to help you keep more of your $ in YOUR pocket and out of the grocer's till.
It's not very hard to make one and it just takes a couple of minutes a week to update it.

And here is my Step-by-Step Guide to making one if you've never tried before.

Let's start 2013, a brand new year off on the right foot!


Here is what you need to begin--

A small notebook, notepad or even just a piece of loose leaf paper.  Something with lines is better than plain bonded paper.  If you only have bonded paper, get a ruler and a pen and make some lines on it.

Here is what I am going to use.  It's something I had here in the house, just taking up space.  I didn't go out and buy anything.

I've got a little notepad with a cover.
You need 6-8 different colored markers or pens.  Use what you can find around the house.  If you can't find 6-8 different colors, use the pen colors and marker colors you have....a blue pen, a black pen, a red pen, a black marker, a brown marker, a pencil, etc.  As long as you can tell a difference when you write with them, which instrument was used.
You also need a small calculator to take into the store with you.  If you have a smartphone just use the calculator function on your phone.

1.  The first thing you do is get out a piece of scratch paper or open a word document if you want to do this on your computer.
You are going to list 20-30 items you buy on a regular basis in the grocery store.  It can be anything.  Food products, pet products, health and beauty and/or paper products.

Here is my list of 30 items.

MEATS
ground beef
chuck roast
hot dogs-premium
pork
bacon
chicken breast
chicken whole
salmon

DAIRY
butter
eggs
cheese

VEGETABLES
carrots
potatoes
celery
onion
salad greens

CANNED/BOXED
pasta
spaghetti sauce
coffee
soup-tomato
soup-cream

BAKING
flour
sugar
sugar-brown
honey

DELI
ham
cheese provolone

FROZEN
pizza
ice cream-premium
broccoli

JUNK
soda 12 pack
chips-premium


And here is my explanation why I chose these items.....


MEATS
ground beef-this is the most used beef for us. I look for 80% or higher.
chuck roast-a cheaper cut that can be slow cooked and taste as good as other cuts
hot dogs-premium types like Nathan's/Sabrett's/Hebrew National
pork-boneless one, either cut up chop style or whole
bacon-any brand
chicken breast-on bone, not boneless, always cheaper than boneless
chicken whole-for roasting, soup/stews, cut up yourself, versatile
salmon-our preference and expensive, need a deal

DAIRY
butter-needed for so many things
eggs-ditto
cheese-block or shredded in bags, 8 oz. size--cheddar and mozzarella-both usually on sale for same price during sales

VEGETABLES
While many veggies go on special seasonally, these ones are needed year round in many dishes.
Mirepoix (your carrots/celery/onions)form the basis of so much in cooking. Potatoes are versatile and good as a filler too.  Fresh salad greens are a must for my family.
 
carrots
potatoes
celery
onion
salad greens

CANNED/BOXED
pasta-a staple in our house, no brand loyalty, something is always going on sale
spaghetti sauce-ditto
coffee-so expensive, worth finding a deal on
soup-tomato
soup-cream --I use these 2 soups in dishes frequently.  They are building blocks or can be eaten as soup.


BAKING
flour-a staple no one should be without, unless you are wheat allergic-then buy rice of coconut flour
sugar-another staple sweetener
sugar-brown--ditto
honey-we use a lot during the winter both in cooking and tea

DELI
ham-we don't use this much but it freezes well.
cheese provolone-an augmentation to the cheddar/mozzarella mix, can't find in blocks here

FROZEN
pizza-no brand loyalty, any name brand or premium house brand
ice cream-ditto
broccoli-a "go to" veggie for my family, like to have it stocked

JUNK
soda 12 pack-something is always on sale but we tend to be brand loyal
chips-premium, any brand


Now here are some other items I didn't include but you might want to....
Milk(our state has regulated prices so it's useless for me to price book this)
Rice
Condiments like ketchup, mustard, relish, mayo
Spices
Bread
Pet Food
Shampoo
Toilet Paper

You don't have to put everything you buy on this list and you can expand or change up stuff on your list after we get 6 weeks or so in.
This first list is just to get you started.

Now that you have your list of 20-30 items, go list them down in your notebook/notepad/sheet of paper.
It will help you if you visualize your grocery stores floor plan and list your items in the order in which you visit that section of the store from first to last.
If your fresh produce section is first, start with fresh veggie items, if the meat section is first, begin with the meats when you write your list.....

2. Pick one of your writing instruments to be your WEEK ONE color.  I'm going with the black marker I wrote my list of items with.

3.  Take your notebook and pen/marker for Week #1 with you the next time you go grocery shopping.

4.  As you go through the store, note the price(or if there are more than one of that product you would consider buying, note the lowest price for similar items/sizes).
* Since sometimes you may be comparing 2 different sized items here, if there is no shelf tag giving the per oz. information, use your calculator(or phone app)to figure which product is less money.

The first time you take your Price Book to the store and have to write down the prices it might take you a little extra time to do your shopping.  It won't take much extra time, 10-15 minutes maybe.  If you are pressed for time, maybe go to the store the first time and NOT buy anything, just do your price book so you can concentrate on getting it right.

5.  Now you put your Price Book away until the next week's sales ad begins.  Just put it on the shelf and next week when you head out the door to grocery shop(hopefully you have a LIST at least!lol), grab the Price Book and another color of marker/pen and repeat Step 3 and 4.

We will do this for the next 6 Weeks.  Then we will sit down and analyze our data and see what the sales cycles look like in our stores.

*** If you want to compare prices between 2 stores as well, it's easy to work that into our Price Book.

WEEK ONE--When we go to the store and write in the prices, just put a letter or symbol next to Store A's price and a different something next to Store B's price.

For example--I shop regularly at Weis and a local market named Carone's.  Week One I will go to Weis and note that ground beef is $2.99 lb. and I'll put a little W next to that price.  Then I'll go to Carone's that same week, and note that ground beef is $3.29 lb. and I'll use the SAME COLOR PEN to write $3.29 but put a little C next to that price.  I now can look back in 6 weeks to see that the best price was $2.99 and Weis had it during Week One.

The Grocery Sales start here on Sunday, so the next sales week is 1/6-1/12.
So I will wait until Sunday to give everyone a chase to get their supplies together and get their items listed in their PRICE BOOK before I go start filling in WEEK ONE's price data and post it.

So why don't you come along and try this?!
What have you got to lose?
Not much I'd say......but you potentially have pennies and dollars to gain when you are giving less money to the grocery stores.  8-)

Sluggy